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Randy's significant size and strength advantage against the 185-pound Jacare makes a huge difference there; as such that's essentially irrelevant for the comparison to facing Nog, IMO.
Also, I don't know how many people have actually seen the match: Randy spends almost the entire duration on the defensive. it wasn't a stalemate because he was able to hold his own in grappling, as much as Jacare wasn't able to actually finish a sub against the 50+ pound bigger & stronger opponent, if that makes sense.
Edit to add: not saying Nog is or isn't a good bet, just saying I wouldn't use Couture v. Jacare for anything meaningful at all, any more than I'd recommend using the Fedor vs. Shinya Aoki exhibition for anything meaningful. So you might possibly watch UFC 102 live stream online free. Good luck then.